When the Oklahoma Parental Choice Tax Credit was created in 2023, it gave Oklahoma something it has rarely enjoyed in competitions with border-state rival Texas: A clear advantage on a high-profile education issue.

Oklahoma has robust school choice options for families. Texas does not.

When he signed the school-choice program into law in May 2023, Gov. Kevin Stitt predicted the program would not only benefit Oklahoma families, but make more people want to become Oklahomans.

“I think it’s going to be a recruitment tool, that people are going to be moving here from Dallas and Washington, D.C.,” Stitt said.

But based on comments from Texas politicians, recent Texas state election results, and the results of public polling in the Lone Star State, Texas could soon join Oklahoma in offering robust school choice—with the per-pupil benefits of the potential Texas school-choice programs possibly exceeding Oklahoma’s program.

In 2023, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott championed school choice, calling for creation of a statewide Education Savings Account (ESA) program that would allow parents to use tax dollars to pay for private school.

Members of the Texas Senate approved a school-choice plan that would have provided $8,000 per student to families to pay for private school. But in the Texas House of Representatives, a group of Republicans joined Democrats to kill the issue.

However, many of those anti-school-choice Republicans are no longer lawmakers following the results of this year’s primary elections in Texas.

In the March 5 Texas primaries, six anti-school-choice incumbents were defeated outright on election day while four more were forced into runoffs. In five other seats, anti-school-choice Republicans retired rather than face the voters and the winning nominees in four of those districts favored school choice.

In the May runoffs, three more anti-school choice incumbents were defeated.

Tommy Schultz, CEO of AFC Victory Fund, which supported pro-school-choice candidates, called the election results “the single biggest movement in favor of school choice in modern history, a result that will prove life-changing for countless Texas families.”

“The results speak for themselves: voters stood with Governor Abbott and his unapologetic effort to prioritize kids, rejecting the status-quo politicians who stood in the way,” Schultz said.

On May 28, Abbott wrote on X, the site formerly known as Twitter, “The Texas legislature now has enough votes to pass School Choice. Congratulations to all of tonight’s winners. Together, we will ensure the best future for our children.”

On May 30, Abbott again tweeted about school choice after a public-school teacher was “accused of filming pornographic videos on campus in Texas.”

“Any parent of a child in a school like this should have the right to choose a school that’s best for their child,” Abbott wrote. “We will provide that choice this next session.”

New polling shows Texans of all stripes support adoption of robust school-choice programs in the state.

The poll, conducted by the Hobby School of Public Affairs at the University of Houston and the Executive Master of Public Administration Program at the School of Public Affairs at Texas Southern University, found that 65 percent of Texans support the adoption of legislation that would provide school vouchers to all parents in Texas, with 33 percent strongly supporting this legislation.

The poll also found that 69 percent of Texans support the adoption of legislation that would create Educational Savings Accounts (ESAs) for all parents in Texas, with 30 percent strongly supporting that idea. ESAs not only allow parents to use tax dollars for private-school tuition, but also allow funds to be used for other education expenses.

Support for vouchers drew majority support from both major political parties with 55 percent of Democrats in support and 73 percent of Republicans.

If Texas provides $8,000 ESA accounts to parents, as was proposed in the measure that passed the Texas Senate last year, it will leapfrog Oklahoma’s program.

The Oklahoma Parental Choice Tax Credit Act provides refundable tax credits of $5,000 to $7,500 per child to help Oklahoma families cover the cost of private school tuition. The lower a family’s income, the larger the tax credit.

And, even though all Oklahoma families can participate in the program, the parental-choice credit program has been capped at a level that prevented thousands of children from benefiting in the program’s first year.

According to the Oklahoma Tax Commission, roughly 36,000 applications were submitted for the school-choice program in its first year. But, since the program is capped at $150 million in tax credits in 2024, roughly 5,600 applicants were rejected because the cap was quickly reached.

In 2025, the cap will increase to $200 million and in 2026 the cap rises to $250 million.

However, the program is expected to grow as more families have the opportunity to pursue private education, and also because lawmakers voted this year to have the program operate on a school-year basis rather than a calendar year. That means families that shift children to private schools at the start of the school year in August will not be at a disadvantage.

The likelihood of growing demand, coupled with the thousands of families who were prevented from benefiting due to the Oklahoma Parental Choice Tax Credit program cap this year, suggest that demand could exceed supply again next year.

Stitt and House Speaker Charles McCall, an Atoka Republican who terms out this year, have both voiced support for raising or eliminating the program cap.

Despite those existing limitations, Oklahoma’s school-choice program ranks among the most robust in the nation. But competition between states and the growing demand from the public suggest that other states could quickly catch up, or surpass, Oklahoma.

In an interview with a CBS affiliate posted on Aug. 4, Abbott made clear that he expects school choice to advance in that state in the coming year.

“You saw the poll that came out yesterday, which is consistent with what we show, and that is two-thirds of Texans support school choice—Republicans and Democrats, blacks, Hispanics, whites, all support school choice,” Abbott said. “And so, what’s going to happen if anybody comes to this Capitol and votes against school choice, they’ll be voting against a majority in their own district.”