Todd Russ, Oklahoma State Treasurer stated about the June economic report, “Oklahoma’s economy remains steady, with strong tax collections, low unemployment, and rising exports. Despite national headwinds, key industries like energy and manufacturing continue to support statewide growth.”

When comparing June 2024 and June 2025 state income figures, Oklahoma is up in three of the five income groups: Gross Production Tax is up 7.3% ir $6.0M; Vehicle Tax is up 6.9 % or $5.3M, and Income Tax is up 10.8% or $58.1M. Revenue is down in two groups: Sales and Use tax is down 3.2% or $19.3M and Other Tax Sources is down 2.2% or $2.9M.

Revenue is up $69.4M and down $22.2M for an overall increase of 47.2M.

Gross Production Tax

Gross Production Tax (GPT) equal $89.1 million in revenues for June, the division saw an overall increase over last year of $6.0 million or 7.3%.  “Gross Production Tax held steady, this continued strength may reflect stable output and remain above key support levels. While the energy sector is known for its ups and downs, the trend over the past few months suggests growing confidence, new investment, and solid demand. These conditions continue to support Oklahoma’s economy, especially in energyproducing regions that rely on stable growth to plan for the future.” State Treasurer Todd Russ

The rebound in oil prices suggests renewed confidence in global demand or tighter supply, but the rig count pullback shows producers are being selective, focusing on efficiency rather than expansion. Stable gasoline prices offer relief to consumers and help ease overall cost-of-living pressures. Though drilling activity slowed, higher crude prices help support Oklahoma’s GPT revenue. With inflation in check and energy prices steady, the state’s energy sector remains a foundation for continued — but cautious — economic momentum.

Business Conditions

Oklahoma continues to hold above growth neutral for the last eight months as several other states show either modest growth or slight contraction. With strong new orders, delayed supplier delivery times, and production inventory lag, manufacturers are expanding cautiously. The Oklahoma manufacturing sector exported $2.4 billion in goods for the first four months of 2025, compared to $2.2 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 6.6% gain, according to the International Trade Administration.

Unemployment rate

Oklahoma and US unemployment rates continue to improve, the U.S declining over last month and OK over the last two months. Unemployment remains very low as jobs continue to grow, with non-farm payroll employment with Oklahoma tying for 11th in the nation for percentage gain over the last 12 months and near the top 10 for all of 2025. Nationwide unemployment fell in 3 states, rose in 3 and remained unchanged in 44.

Consumer Price Index

CPI hit 2.7% in June, an increase of 0.3% compared with May at 2.4%, marking the third consecutive monthly increase and the highest annual inflation rate since January. On a monthly basis, prices were driven largely by higher shelter, energy, and food costs. While inflation trended downward earlier in the year, June’s report signals renewed price pressures, particularly in essential categories. Despite easing in areas like vehicles and airfare, core inflation remains sticky at 2.9%, reinforcing consumer concerns and likely delaying any short-term interest rate cuts.

Fixed Mortgage Rate

The weekly average decreased slightly over last month as financial markets await stronger signals from the Fed’s. While borrowing costs remain elevated, rate volatility has steadied somewhat. The challenge in the housing market has shifted from interest rates to persistent affordability issues, tight inventory, and declining buyer confidence. Despite prior expectations of relief following the Fed’s 2024 rate cuts, the long-term rate outlook remains clouded by inflation uncertainty, global trade risks and fiscal policy debates.